Housing "looks" terrible. You should buy a house.

3 Minute Read

Oh boy.

Inflation just hit a 3-year high: 4.2% in May, the fastest pace since April 2023, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Inventory's climbing. And rates are back in the mid-6s. Freddie Mac pegged the 30-year at 6.52%, with the rate cut everybody was banking on now off the table.

And despite all that, I'm telling you — for the right buyer, this is the best window I've seen in years.

Rewind to 2021. The market was the hottest it had been since '06. Buyers were lined up down the block for a house that wasn't even live yet. Bidding wars. Lotteries. People covering the seller's moving costs just to win. It was nuts — and a lot of those buyers overpaid so badly they're still underwater today. They'll be fine. They just have to wait it out.

Today is a different movie, and the data backs it up. According to Realtor.com's May report, median list prices fell 2.4% year over year, the steepest drop since 2017, as sellers finally adjust their expectations. New listings hit their highest May level since 2022, so there's more on the menu. And Realtor.com's own 2026 outlook says exactly what I'm telling my clients: buyers are getting more negotiating power. Translation: sellers can't just name their number anymore.

So why isn't everyone jumping? There's a reason. We're wired to follow the crowd (Cialdini calls it social proof), and right now that crowd is parked on the sidelines waiting for a "better time." Which is exactly why the people who move now win. The best deals never happen when everyone agrees it's a good time to buy.

Now let me be clear about what I'm not saying. I'm not telling you to get over your skis. Only buy if you can afford it and you've got peace about the payment. Start there. What monthly payment can you actually live with? Work that backward into a price and a loan amount. Does that number get you a home you genuinely want?

If yes, you're in the driver's seat. Here's what that looks like right now:

• You can negotiate the price down.
• You can have the seller cover your closing costs and prepaids.
• And if you're a veteran using your VA benefit, you stack zero down on top of that, which means you can walk into this market with little to nothing out of pocket while everyone else is scraping together a down payment.

That last part is the piece nobody's talking about. And it's not theory. Two of my last three appraisals came back over asking. One by a hundred grand. A client who closed recently had the seller pay off his debts at the table! He literally walked into that house in a better financial position than the day he started looking. These are the kinds of things happening for buyers who are willing and able to pull the trigger in today's market.

I saw a guy on IG last week calling for a crash. Can't remember his name, but I do remember he was unshaven, wearing a beanie and an earring, filming from his bedroom. Anyway, I'm just not seeing it. Hiring's holding up. There's no widespread subprime lending like '08. Standards are tight, nobody's getting a no-doc loan. And homeowners are sitting on a mountain of equity: the ICE Mortgage Monitor puts tappable home equity near $11 trillion, close to a record, and ATTOM reports that 43% of mortgaged homes are now equity-rich, meaning the owner owes less than half what the place is worth. This is not a house of cards.

But here's the dynamic that matters, and the Mortgage Bankers Association data spells it out. Mortgage apps exploded at the end of February (refis hit their strongest pace since 2022, when rates dipped near 6%), and then got punched in the mouth. As rates climbed back toward the mid-6s on the inflation and oil shock, refis dried up and applications fell for weeks straight. Demand isn't dead. It's rate-sensitive. The second rates dip, apps bounce. The second rates rise, refis vanish and buyers tap the brakes. But when it flips, guess what? Sellers have more options, which means less negotiating power for buyers.

That right there is the trade you're really deciding on: you don't get a buyer's market and low rates. You get one or the other. Right now you've got the buyer's market: the leverage, the concessions, the appraisals coming in over ask. The day rates ease and the sideline buyers come roaring back, that leverage is gone. You'll have competition again. You'll be the one covering the seller's costs.

If buying right now makes you a little uncomfortable? Good. Get comfortable being uncomfortable. That feeling is usually standing right where the opportunity is.

Want to know what payment translates to a price you're actually comfortable with? That's a 15-minute conversation. Book it by clicking HERE, and I'll give it to you straight.

Jimmy V